December 12th, 2025
The Eastern Nile Basin Research Universities and Centers (ENRUC) network recently hosted a new episode of its webinar series under the thematic : “Seasonal Forecasts for Decision Support in Transboundary Water Management in the Greater Horn of Africa and Blue Nile Region”. The session brought together Prof. Dr. Harald Kunstmann (Karlsruhe Institute of Technology & University of Augsburg), Prof. Dr. Axel Bronstert (University of Potsdam), and Mr. André Müller (adelphi) to discuss how enhanced seasonal climate forecasts can guide decisions in water and agricultural management across the Greater Horn of Africa, with a focus on the Blue Nile Basin and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
Key outcomes of the webinar included:
- Advancements in statistical and AI-based techniques to refine ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts for the region.
- Integration of hydrological and sediment-load modeling to improve reservoir management at the GERD.
- Application of forecast data in crop yield modeling to strengthen food security planning and early action.
- Development of improved methods for disseminating and broadcasting flood forecasts, ensuring timely information reaches the widest possible audience through the most effective communication channels.
To ensure the transferability and long-term sustainability of the knowledge and tools developed—including the forecasting models and underlying code—training sessions for local stakeholders were conducted within the project framework. However, sustaining and expanding these efforts will require continued collaboration and new partnerships to maintain momentum and build resilience in regional water management practices.