The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, being constructed by Ethiopia on the Blue Nile, has raised deep political concerns among the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, which depend massively on the river for their freshwater supply—97% and 77%, respectively (Souza & Jara, 2023). Ethiopia considers the GERD a milestone for regional development; it is designed to produce 6,000 MW of electricity and offer many services, including flood control, sediment management, and regulation of water flow year-round, to both Ethiopia and its neighbors (Tesfa, 2013). However, Egypt and Sudan are concerned by potential impacts on their own water security, particularly regarding the filling of the dam’s 74 billion cubic meter (BCM) reservoir (Basheer et al., 2023; Climate Diplomacy, 2011). Egypt and Sudan say a slower filling would reduce risks to their water resources, while Ethiopia is pushing for a fast fill to help get electricity production under way as quickly as possible (Souza & Jara, 2023). While Sudan could reap improved irrigation, better regulated flows and less sedimentation, Egypt expects the lack of coordination could threaten the Aswan High Dam’s functioning, lead to shortfalls in irrigation supplies and cause increased salinization during poor flow years (Basheer et al., 2023; Climate Diplomacy, 2011).
International negotiations, including recent discussions with mediation from the U.S. and the World Bank, have so far failed to bring about an agreement on filling and long-term operation of the dam that satisfies all parties (Souza & Jara, 2023). Sudan has been cautiously supportive, conditional on cooperation in managing flood risks, while Egypt is much more cautious due to concerns about the effects on its agriculture and economy should there be multiple consecutive years of drought while the dam is filling (El-Affendi, 2022; Kahsay et al., 2015). Ethiopia argued that the GERD would reduce evaporation losses downstream, ensure stable hydropower supplies, and reduce sediment accumulation, hence benefiting all three countries (Lazin et al., 2023; Tesfa, 2013). The case brings into focus the need for cooperation at the basin level to guarantee sustainable management and use of water, equity in its use, and to minimize the risk of conflict in the Nile River Basin (Lazin et al., 2023).
Timeline for the ratification of the CFA (NBI 2024):
