A recent study examines the potential economy-wide impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on Sudan, considering its expected doubling of Ethiopia’s electricity generation and its implications for River Nile flows. Authored by Khalid Siddig, Mohammed Basheer, and Jonas Luckmann, the research utilizes a computable general equilibrium model and outputs from previous biophysical studies to analyze the long-term operation of the GERD.
Key Findings
- Economic Growth: The study suggests that the GERD could contribute to increasing Sudan’s accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60. This potential economic growth is attributed to a 20% increase in hydropower generation and the rapid expansion of irrigation.
- Crop Selection: The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes emerges as a critical factor influencing Sudan’s macro-economic benefits. Selecting appropriate crops can enhance the positive impacts of the GERD on Sudan’s economy.
Implications
- Economic Opportunities: The findings highlight the potential for the GERD to generate economic opportunities for Sudan, particularly through increased hydropower generation and agricultural expansion. Leveraging these opportunities requires strategic planning and investment in irrigation infrastructure.
- Policy Considerations: Policymakers need to consider the broader economic implications of the GERD and formulate strategies to maximize its benefits while mitigating potential risks. This includes promoting sustainable agricultural practices and ensuring equitable distribution of water resources.
Conclusion
The study provides valuable insights into the long-term economic impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan. By assessing various scenarios and highlighting the importance of crop selection in irrigation schemes, the research offers guidance for policymakers and stakeholders in harnessing the potential benefits of the GERD for Sudan’s economy.
