Historical events of conflict and cooperation in the Nile River basin 

Transboundary water resources in the Eastern Nile Basin, which Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt share, have historically been sources of tension and collaboration. These dynamics indicate the intricate interaction of divergent goals and the importance of collaborative water management (Ghoreishi et al., 2023).

2020
Negotiation about GERD

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2020

Negotiation about GERD

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, being constructed by Ethiopia on the Blue Nile, has raised deep political concerns among the downstream countries, Egypt and Sudan, which depend massively on the river for their freshwater supply—97% and 77%, respectively (Souza & Jara, 2023). Ethiopia considers the GERD a milestone for regional development; it is designed to produce 6,000 MW of electricity and offer many services, including flood control, sediment management, and regulation of water flow year-round, to both Ethiopia and its neighbors (Tesfa, 2013). However, Egypt and Sudan are concerned by potential impacts on their own water security, particularly regarding the filling of the dam’s 74 billion cubic meter (BCM) reservoir (Basheer et al., 2023; Climate Diplomacy, 2011). Egypt and Sudan say a slower filling would reduce risks to their water resources, while Ethiopia is pushing for a fast fill to help get electricity production under way as quickly as possible (Souza & Jara, 2023). While Sudan could reap improved irrigation, better regulated flows and less sedimentation, Egypt expects the lack of coordination could threaten the Aswan High Dam’s functioning, lead to shortfalls in irrigation supplies and cause increased salinization during poor flow years (Basheer et al., 2023; Climate Diplomacy, 2011).
International negotiations, including recent discussions with mediation from the U.S. and the World Bank, have so far failed to bring about an agreement on filling and long-term operation of the dam that satisfies all parties (Souza & Jara, 2023). Sudan has been cautiously supportive, conditional on cooperation in managing flood risks, while Egypt is much more cautious due to concerns about the effects on its agriculture and economy should there be multiple consecutive years of drought while the dam is filling (El-Affendi, 2022; Kahsay et al., 2015). Ethiopia argued that the GERD would reduce evaporation losses downstream, ensure stable hydropower supplies, and reduce sediment accumulation, hence benefiting all three countries (Lazin et al., 2023; Tesfa, 2013). The case brings into focus the need for cooperation at the basin level to guarantee sustainable management and use of water, equity in its use, and to minimize the risk of conflict in the Nile River Basin (Lazin et al., 2023).

Timeline for the ratification of the CFA (NBI 2024):

2012
JMP stopped

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2012

JMP stopped

In 2010, due to disagreements within the political cooperation track, the expectation that the JMP project could still offer a ground-breaking platform for joint large-scale hydraulic development disappeared, and the project came to a halt in 2012 before it could deliver any of the anticipated tangible results (Ghoreishi et al., 2023).

2010
Cooperative Framework Agreement

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2010

Cooperative Framework Agreement

The CFA was proposed for signature in 2010, with the goal of establishing fair water use and common accountability among Nile states, rejecting earlier historical treaties that favored downstream governments. It aims to promote regional socioeconomic development, peace, and security in accordance with international environmental norms, such as the Stockholm Declaration, which advocates for resource sovereignty with responsibilities to neighbors to prevent cross-border environmental harm (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018). Egypt and Sudan have declined to sign the CFA, even suspending full participation in NBI, whilst the other Nile countries of Ethiopia, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya have approved the agreement (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; Mohammed Jungudo, 2018). Articles 4, 5, and 14 of the framework have been the topic of disagreement. In fact, article 4 emphasizes the need to introduce the principle of equitable and reasonable utilization in the Nile basin; article 5 also requires member states not to cause significant harm to water sources; and article 14 addresses the new concept of water security, stating that a member state’s activities should not have a significant impact on the water security of other Nile Basin states (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017). If Egypt and Sudan sign the Cooperative Framework Agreement, they will improve collaboration by reinforcing existing arrangements and efforts under the Nile Basin Initiative. If they withdraw from Nile Basin operations and insist on rejecting the new agreement, sub-basin arrangements such as the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Programme (ENSAP) may, negatively, be impacted (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017).

2009
The Tekeze Dam inauguration

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2009

The Tekeze Dam inauguration

Ethiopia’s Tekeze Dam, located at 13°21′ N, 38°45′ E on the Tekeze River, was commissioned in 2009. It is a major infrastructure project with a 300 MW capacity. The dam’s 188-meter-high double-curvature concrete arch design was the tallest in Africa at the time of construction, and is situated in a deeply incised valley formed by Precambrian granite. The reservoir covers 70 kilometers and has a total storage capacity of 9.3 billion cubic meters, including 5.3 billion cubic meters of active storage, making it Ethiopia’s largest manmade lake. Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP), under the Ministry of Water, Irrigation, and Electricity (MoWIE), operates the dam, which intercepts runoff from 44% of the catchment area (66,882 km²) (Annys et al., 2021). Equipped with an underground powerhouse, the Tekeze Dam has four Francis turbines and four generators, each rated at 75 MW (Annys et al., 2020). Besides generating electricity, the dam supports small-scale irrigation, enhancing agricultural productivity along the river and offering potential for future irrigation expansion due to improved water availability in dry seasons (Adera, 2015).

2009
The Merowe Dam inauguration

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2009

The Merowe Dam inauguration

The Merowe Dam, built between 2003 and 2009, is located on the Nile River, 350 kilometers north of Khartoum and was intended to meet Sudan’s rapidly increasing energy needs (Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD), 2024; Tractebel-engie, 2024). The dam has an installed capacity of 1,250 MW and has doubled the country’s electrical output, considerably reducing reliance on thermal power and frequent power disruptions (Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD), 2024). The dam is Sudan’s largest hydroelectric project and one of the largest on the Nile, having enormous social, economic, and environmental implications. Construction of the dam displaced up to 50,000 people, primarily from the Manasir, Hamdab, and Amri communities, and resulted in the loss of livelihoods, culture, and agriculture. The dam’s water flow changes have an impact on farming and habitats downstream (Abdullah et al., 2020). Despite these challenges, the Merowe Dam contributed to national development by increasing energy supply and generally improving infrastructure in the region. With its record in the world in terms of the longest concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) design, the dam provides an annual high energy output of more than 6,500 GWh (Abdullah et al., 2020; Tractebel-engie, 2024).

2009
JMP in Stalemate

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2009

JMP in Stalemate

The three countries, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Sudan, continued the negotiations on Cooperative Framework Agreement CFA until 2007 when Sudan and Egypt raised objections. The objections were mainly focused on the potential threats to the traditional water rights. The objection reduced the excitement of the JMP until a stalemate was reached in 2009 (Ghoreishi et al., 2023). Interviews with Egyptian, Ethiopian, and Sudanese officials (2008–2010) suggest that Egypt’s misgivings about the JMP’s technical results translated into receding participation, even as Ethiopia and Sudan attempted through ENSAP to draw Egypt back in (Cascão & Nicol, 2016; Ghoreishi et al., 2023) . With the political steam running out, Ethiopia decided to go ahead with its national hydropower projects, among them the GERD, to respond to the country’s growing energy needs, as highlighted in the inauguration speech by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (Cascão & Nicol, 2016).

2007
The Toshka Project

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2007

The Toshka Project

The Toshka region, in the southeastern corner of Egypt’s Western Desert, covers 15,000 km². In the mid-1990s, excess water from Lake Nasser resulted in the formation of short-term lakes in the Toshka Depression. Water in the depression reached its maximum level in 1998 before dropping due to both evaporation and infiltration to almost complete disappearance by 2001. Tapping the water, Egypt began the New Valley Project in 1997 with the construction of canals to irrigate 3,360 km² of land so that pressure on population in the Nile Valley is reduced and to spur economic growth but only 10% of the soil is appropriate for long-term irrigation besides facing problems like wind erosion and intensive costs of infrastructure. Critics maintain that its annual withdrawal of 5 billion cubic meters of water will reduce the resources available to Nile Delta farmers and merely make Egypt more vulnerable to droughts. Most of the infrastructure is already in place, and crops including wheat, grapes, and tomatoes are already being grown (El-Sayed et al., 2023; UNEP, 2013). The Toshka project aims at attaining food self-sufficiency, mainly in grain crops, through a cut down on the import of wheat (El-Sayed et al., 2023). Egypt also has a groundwater reliant development program on desert lands. Most rural communities rely on the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer water to lessen the strain on the Nile Valley (Aly et al., 2023).

2003
The Eastern Nile Joint Multi-Purpose (JMP) Study launch

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2003

The Eastern Nile Joint Multi-Purpose (JMP) Study launch

The Eastern Nile Joint Multi-Purpose (JMP) Study, launched in 2003 aims to foster cooperative water infrastructure development among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in the Abbay/Blue Nile sub-basin (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018; Nicol, 2017). The JMP’s landmark ENCOM-commissioned study, “Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile” (Blackmore & Whittington, 2008), highlighted a transformative “no-borders perspective” on equitable water use and benefits-sharing. Regional engagement, led by ENTRO, includes a dedicated project team, national coordinators, and a stakeholder consultation strategy, ensuring alignment with local and regional needs (NBI, 2009). Supported by Norwegian funding, ENTRO is also overseeing feasibility studies for multipurpose dam sites to enhance sustainable growth and integration across the Eastern Nile (NBI, 2009).

1999
The launch of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)

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1999

The launch of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was founded in 1999 as an intergovernmental organization of 10 Nile Basin countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, with Eritrea serving as an observer (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017). As a transitional mechanism, NBI promotes cooperation in the management and development of the Nile’s common water resources. The NBI aims to achieve sustainable socioeconomic growth, equitable water usage, and conflict resolution through collaborative efforts in hydropower, agriculture, watershed management, and fisheries (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; Mohammed Jungudo, 2018). Fostering cooperation, improving knowledge-based Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), and assisting with water-related project investment are among the core functions (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018; NBI, 2024). At the highest decision-making level, the NBI structure includes the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), the Nile Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC), and the Nile Secretariat (Nile-SEC), which is based in Entebbe, Uganda (NBI, 2024). Two subsidiary programs, the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Programme (ENSAP) and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Programme (NELSAP), define regional investment and capacity-building activities (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; World Bank Group, 2019). While Egypt and Sudan initially suspended participation owing to Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA) negotiations, Sudan returned in 2013, while Egypt currently participates selectively (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017). The NBI has successfully brought Nile countries together, establishing regional capacity for cooperative water resource management and launching projects such as the Uganda-DR Congo power transmission line and the Nile Equatorial Lakes water resource development project (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018; NBI, 2024). However, unpaid contributions from member states and decreasing donor funds pose a threat to the initiative’s long-term project sustainability (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; Mohammed Jungudo, 2018).

1992
TECCONILE establishement

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1992

TECCONILE establishement

The 1992, six Nile countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda), with the other riparians (Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Kenya) participating as observers, have formed a transitional mechanism known as the Technical Co-operation for the Promotion of the Development and Environmental Protection of the Nile Basin (TECCONILE)(Kagwanja, 2007; Metawie, 1999). The cooperation had a strong technical focus with a prospect of the establishment of a permanent basin-wide institution after three years, however, this did not occur (Metawie, 1999). The cooperation’s far projects are the Nile River Basin Action Plan (NRBAP) formed in 1995, containing 22 technical assistance and capacity building projects related to the Nile Basin and the D3 Project to develop the ‘Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework’ for the management of the Nile (Kagwanja, 2007).

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