Historical events of conflict and cooperation in the Nile River basin 

Transboundary water resources in the Eastern Nile Basin, which Ethiopia, Sudan, and Egypt share, have historically been sources of tension and collaboration. These dynamics indicate the intricate interaction of divergent goals and the importance of collaborative water management (Ghoreishi et al., 2023).

1959
Water Allocation treaty

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1959

Water Allocation treaty

In 1959 Egypt and Sudan agreed on the use of the Nile River water – an agreement that didn’t involve Ethiopia’s participation (Food and Agriculture Organization, 1959). This treaty have shown a significant role of dam constructions as a motivation for countries to cooperate (Ghoreishi et al., 2023). The agreement divided roughly 80 per cent of the Nile’s flows between the two countries guaranteeing a minimum of 55.5 Billion cubic meters of water for Egypt and 18.5 Billion cubic meters for Sudan(Muyali, 2024). The agreement remains the primary legal framework governing the use of Nile waters for Egypt and Sudan. However, Ethiopia and other upstream countries advocate for a new water-sharing agreement founded on equitable and reasonable use principles.(Whittington, 2024).
1966
The Roseires Dam Completion and inauguration

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1966

The Roseires Dam Completion and inauguration

The Roseires Dam, established in 1966 on the Blue Nile River in Ad Damazin town in the upstream part of the Nile system, is one of Sudan’s most important dams, originally designed to hold water for irrigation, supplying irrigation water for the large irrigation schemes of Gezira (0.9 million ha), Rahad (0.12 million ha) and Suki (0.03 million ha) and to many medium-sized and small-scale irrigation schemes, and hydroelectric generation (Hamid et al., 2024; Hassan et al., 2023; International Hydropower Association, 2022). In 1966, the dam’s storage capacity was 3 billion m3 and generating 280 MW of hydropower. In 2012, the dam was heightened by 10 m in 2012 increasing the storage capacity to 7.4 billion m3 and the hydropower to 440 MW (Alajab et al., 2022; International Hydropower Association, 2022). The dam’s expansion is allowing for more water storage and producing a 75-kilometer-long lake, which serves as an important fishing field with a maximum sustainable production of 1,000 tons per year (Hamid et al., 2024).

1970
The Aswan High Dam Completion and inauguration

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1970

The Aswan High Dam Completion and inauguration

The Aswan High Dam was constructed in 1970 and operational in 1976 (Goharian et al., 2022). It is in southern Egypt and forms one of the largest artificial lakes in the world, 500 km of length, in the Egyptian (350 km) and Sudanese lands (150 km) (Genidi et al., 2023; Goharian et al., 2022; Sweed, 2023). This reservoir is one of the largest storages controlling the outflow into the Egyptian Nile Valley (Goharian et al., 2022; Ilgen et al., 2024). The reservoir is in a very hot and dry climate which means the evaporation rates can be specifically high in riparian areas and khors representing 79% of the total lake area (Ilgen et al., 2024). The dam plays a pivotal role in the water resources and economic sectors of Egypt and part of the Sudanese territories. It, additionally, protects Egypt against long-term floods and droughts (Goharian et al., 2022; Ilgen et al., 2024). Furthermore, it serves for hydropower generation throughout the year, generating an annual electricity up to 10 000 GWh (Ilgen et al., 2024). The region has faced a significant seismic activity, including the 1981 earthquake (5.6 ML) and a 2010 event (4.6 ML) near the spillway fault, raising concerns about the stability of the High Dam, because of the proximity to essential infrastructure (Genidi et al., 2023; Hamed et al., 2024; Mohamed et al., 2022). Additionally, two crack zones beneath the spillway fault allow water seepage, leading to expansion and potential impacts on the dam’s structural integrity (Mohamed et al., 2022).

1983
The Undugu initiative establishement

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1983

The Undugu initiative establishement

In 1983, the Organization of African Unity (OAU) formed the Undugu group joining Burundi, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Rwanda, Sudan and Uganda with Ethiopia, Kenya and Tanzania as observers (Ghoreishi et al., 2023; Kagwanja, 2007). The aim of the Undugu group was to establish a collaboration between these countries regarding infrastructure, environmental cooperation, culture and trade. Nevertheless, this project failed to establish any significant outcome, the Undugu group members only focused on discussing the drought without paying attention to the rainy seasons (Kagwanja, 2007).

1992
TECCONILE establishement

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1992

TECCONILE establishement

The 1992, six Nile countries (Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda), with the other riparians (Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia and Kenya) participating as observers, have formed a transitional mechanism known as the Technical Co-operation for the Promotion of the Development and Environmental Protection of the Nile Basin (TECCONILE)(Kagwanja, 2007; Metawie, 1999). The cooperation had a strong technical focus with a prospect of the establishment of a permanent basin-wide institution after three years, however, this did not occur (Metawie, 1999). The cooperation’s far projects are the Nile River Basin Action Plan (NRBAP) formed in 1995, containing 22 technical assistance and capacity building projects related to the Nile Basin and the D3 Project to develop the ‘Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework’ for the management of the Nile (Kagwanja, 2007).

1999
The launch of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)

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1999

The launch of the Nile Basin Initiative (NBI)

The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) was founded in 1999 as an intergovernmental organization of 10 Nile Basin countries: Burundi, D.R. Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda, with Eritrea serving as an observer (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017). As a transitional mechanism, NBI promotes cooperation in the management and development of the Nile’s common water resources. The NBI aims to achieve sustainable socioeconomic growth, equitable water usage, and conflict resolution through collaborative efforts in hydropower, agriculture, watershed management, and fisheries (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; Mohammed Jungudo, 2018). Fostering cooperation, improving knowledge-based Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM), and assisting with water-related project investment are among the core functions (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018; NBI, 2024). At the highest decision-making level, the NBI structure includes the Nile Council of Ministers (Nile-COM), the Nile Technical Advisory Committee (Nile-TAC), and the Nile Secretariat (Nile-SEC), which is based in Entebbe, Uganda (NBI, 2024). Two subsidiary programs, the Eastern Nile Subsidiary Action Programme (ENSAP) and the Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action Programme (NELSAP), define regional investment and capacity-building activities (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; World Bank Group, 2019). While Egypt and Sudan initially suspended participation owing to Comprehensive Framework Agreement (CFA) negotiations, Sudan returned in 2013, while Egypt currently participates selectively (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017). The NBI has successfully brought Nile countries together, establishing regional capacity for cooperative water resource management and launching projects such as the Uganda-DR Congo power transmission line and the Nile Equatorial Lakes water resource development project (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018; NBI, 2024). However, unpaid contributions from member states and decreasing donor funds pose a threat to the initiative’s long-term project sustainability (Knaepen & Byiers, 2017; Mohammed Jungudo, 2018).

2003
The Eastern Nile Joint Multi-Purpose (JMP) Study launch

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2003

The Eastern Nile Joint Multi-Purpose (JMP) Study launch

The Eastern Nile Joint Multi-Purpose (JMP) Study, launched in 2003 aims to foster cooperative water infrastructure development among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan in the Abbay/Blue Nile sub-basin (Mohammed Jungudo, 2018; Nicol, 2017). The JMP’s landmark ENCOM-commissioned study, “Opportunities for Cooperative Water Resources Development on the Eastern Nile” (Blackmore & Whittington, 2008), highlighted a transformative “no-borders perspective” on equitable water use and benefits-sharing. Regional engagement, led by ENTRO, includes a dedicated project team, national coordinators, and a stakeholder consultation strategy, ensuring alignment with local and regional needs (NBI, 2009). Supported by Norwegian funding, ENTRO is also overseeing feasibility studies for multipurpose dam sites to enhance sustainable growth and integration across the Eastern Nile (NBI, 2009).

2007
The Toshka Project

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2007

The Toshka Project

The Toshka region, in the southeastern corner of Egypt’s Western Desert, covers 15,000 km². In the mid-1990s, excess water from Lake Nasser resulted in the formation of short-term lakes in the Toshka Depression. Water in the depression reached its maximum level in 1998 before dropping due to both evaporation and infiltration to almost complete disappearance by 2001. Tapping the water, Egypt began the New Valley Project in 1997 with the construction of canals to irrigate 3,360 km² of land so that pressure on population in the Nile Valley is reduced and to spur economic growth but only 10% of the soil is appropriate for long-term irrigation besides facing problems like wind erosion and intensive costs of infrastructure. Critics maintain that its annual withdrawal of 5 billion cubic meters of water will reduce the resources available to Nile Delta farmers and merely make Egypt more vulnerable to droughts. Most of the infrastructure is already in place, and crops including wheat, grapes, and tomatoes are already being grown (El-Sayed et al., 2023; UNEP, 2013). The Toshka project aims at attaining food self-sufficiency, mainly in grain crops, through a cut down on the import of wheat (El-Sayed et al., 2023). Egypt also has a groundwater reliant development program on desert lands. Most rural communities rely on the Nubian Sandstone Aquifer water to lessen the strain on the Nile Valley (Aly et al., 2023).

2009
JMP in Stalemate

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2009

JMP in Stalemate

The three countries, Egypt, Ethiopia, and the Sudan, continued the negotiations on Cooperative Framework Agreement CFA until 2007 when Sudan and Egypt raised objections. The objections were mainly focused on the potential threats to the traditional water rights. The objection reduced the excitement of the JMP until a stalemate was reached in 2009 (Ghoreishi et al., 2023). Interviews with Egyptian, Ethiopian, and Sudanese officials (2008–2010) suggest that Egypt’s misgivings about the JMP’s technical results translated into receding participation, even as Ethiopia and Sudan attempted through ENSAP to draw Egypt back in (Cascão & Nicol, 2016; Ghoreishi et al., 2023) . With the political steam running out, Ethiopia decided to go ahead with its national hydropower projects, among them the GERD, to respond to the country’s growing energy needs, as highlighted in the inauguration speech by Prime Minister Meles Zenawi (Cascão & Nicol, 2016).

2009
The Merowe Dam inauguration

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2009

The Merowe Dam inauguration

The Merowe Dam, built between 2003 and 2009, is located on the Nile River, 350 kilometers north of Khartoum and was intended to meet Sudan’s rapidly increasing energy needs (Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD), 2024; Tractebel-engie, 2024). The dam has an installed capacity of 1,250 MW and has doubled the country’s electrical output, considerably reducing reliance on thermal power and frequent power disruptions (Abu Dhabi Fund for Development (ADFD), 2024). The dam is Sudan’s largest hydroelectric project and one of the largest on the Nile, having enormous social, economic, and environmental implications. Construction of the dam displaced up to 50,000 people, primarily from the Manasir, Hamdab, and Amri communities, and resulted in the loss of livelihoods, culture, and agriculture. The dam’s water flow changes have an impact on farming and habitats downstream (Abdullah et al., 2020). Despite these challenges, the Merowe Dam contributed to national development by increasing energy supply and generally improving infrastructure in the region. With its record in the world in terms of the longest concrete face rockfill dam (CFRD) design, the dam provides an annual high energy output of more than 6,500 GWh (Abdullah et al., 2020; Tractebel-engie, 2024).

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